The real estate trends in 2024 can be read through two indicators: the volume of transactions and the evolution of credit rates. These two data points tell different stories depending on the cities and types of properties. Understanding their respective trajectories allows for better calibration of a real estate investment strategy, whether for residential purchase or rental.
Transaction Volumes and Prices: The Picture of Real Estate Recovery
The French real estate market went through a marked contraction phase in 2023-2024, with a drop in sales volumes in the existing market. Data from the Conseil supérieur du notariat helps measure the extent of the ongoing reversal.
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| Indicator | Situation 2023-2024 | Situation end of February 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Transactions in the existing market (12-month rolling) | Significant drop in volumes | Estimated 958,000 sales |
| Year-on-year volume change | Marked decline | Approximately 11% increase |
| Year-on-year price change (projection May 2026) | Variable correction depending on the cities | Around -0.2% |
This table shows a recovery in volumes without a surge in prices. The current phase corresponds neither to a collapse nor to a speculative rebound. Buyers are gradually returning to the market, but without sufficient pressure to drive prices up.
For investors, this configuration opens a window: negotiation margins remain accessible in many cities, while the number of properties available for sale remains high. You can learn more about Ambiance Immo to follow local market developments.
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Mortgage Rates: The Game-Changing Trajectory for Buyers
Interest rates are the second determining lever for any investment project. After a sharp rise between 2022 and 2023, a relaxation began in 2024-2025. Borrowing conditions have gradually eased, restoring purchasing power to households.
The recent situation adds a nuance. According to available data, a slight rise in rates is observed in 2026, following the relaxation phase. This fluctuation alters the profitability calculation of purchase projects, particularly for long-term credit.
In practice, three factors weigh on the borrowing decision:
- The differential between the nominal loan rate and the expected gross rental yield in the targeted city, which determines the viability of a rental investment
- The duration of the loan, which absorbs more or less the effect of a rise of a few tenths of a point
- The personal contribution, whose level remains a discriminating criterion for access to the loan since the tightening of granting conditions
Buyers who waited for the rate drop of 2024-2025 to purchase benefited from a favorable alignment between stabilized prices and improved financing conditions. Those who are still waiting face an uncertain parameter.
Rental Investment in 2024: The Jeanbrun Scheme and Its Limits
Rental investment in new properties remains a central topic in real estate trends. The so-called “Jeanbrun” tax scheme, which came into effect in early 2025 to support this segment, was supposed to take over from the Pinel scheme. Initial feedback from the field is mixed.
The Conseil supérieur du notariat notes that rental investment remains subdued despite this new tax framework. The scheme “does not seem to have produced the expected effects” on the demand from private investors. Several reasons explain this hesitancy.
The new property market suffers from a structural problem of construction costs. Prices per square meter in new programs remain significantly higher than in the existing market, which compresses rental yields. Even with a tax advantage, the profitability calculation does not work in all cities.
In contrast, the existing market offers visible opportunities: energy-inefficient properties (classified F or G in the energy performance diagnosis) are negotiated at significant discounts. An investor willing to finance energy renovation work can rebuild rental value at a lower acquisition cost.
Secondary Cities and the Rental Market: Where Signals Concentrate in 2024
The geography of real estate investment has shifted in recent years. Paris retains a special status with square meter prices that limit gross rental yields. Bordeaux, long cited among the most dynamic markets, has experienced a price correction after years of rapid increases.
Medium-sized cities are attracting a growing share of investor attention. The saturation of primary markets, combined with the development of remote work, has redistributed demand towards urban areas where the entry price remains accessible.
Three criteria allow for evaluating the potential of a secondary city for rental purchase:
- The demographic dynamics and the presence of a diverse job pool, which ensure a flow of tenants
- The rental vacancy rate, a direct indicator of the match between supply and demand in the local market
- Infrastructure projects (transport, higher education, business zones) that support medium-term valuation
The choice of a city is not limited to comparing gross yields. A high yield in an area with a high vacancy rate produces no real income.
The reading of real estate trends in 2024 rests on a simple observation: transaction volumes are picking up, prices are stagnating, and tax schemes are struggling to revive new builds. For an investor, the data to watch remains the evolution of credit rates in the coming months, the only parameter capable of quickly altering the profitability equation of a real estate purchase.